Between
twenty-five and thirty observer Missions have located In Namibia since April
when implementation of U.N. resolution 435 began. Some of these Missions such as
the O.A.U and the Frontline Missions comprise more than one state. Thus, close
to fifty countries have representatives in Windhoek. This makes the diplomatic
corps in Windhoek bigger than in Pretoria.
This is indeed a reflection of the
effort, and resources the International Community has committed to the
resolution of the
vexing Namibia problem
The
Observer Missions in ‘Windhoek has agreed to work on a consensus bases and
have highlighted the following issues
as of concern to all of them:
1 The security situation
the role of koevoet and South West Africa police (SWAPOL)
2 political
violence & Inter Party relations
3 registration of voters: administrator
Generals proclamations
4Outcome of Elections: will it be accented?
5 what next?
It should come as no surprise that even though
the issues mentioned above are of concern to all Missions, the interpretation
and emphasis placed on them vary depending on the political preferences of an
individual Mission by all, that SWAPO's incursion of 31st March, April was most
unfortunate. The Americans and other countries emphasize that the incursion
destroyed the had been nurtured slowly and patiently en negotiating parties. The
Frontline and other SWPO sympathizers emphasize the fact that it gave South
Africa an excuse to unleash Koevoet unto SWAPO’s supporters and other innocent
Namibian people.
1)
Koevoet's harassment of the local population, which started at that time, has
been of the greatest concern to all observer missions, and has resulted in the
Security Council Resolution 644, which was passed recently. As a result of
American and British pressure on South Africa the situation is said to have
improved considerably, although there is still some debate on whether Koevoet
should be disbanded as demanded by African countries or be confined to base as
is the case to—day. The Africans fear that if it is not disbanded, it could be
reactivated at a very short notice. SWAPOL has also been accused of intimidation
and harassment but to a lesser extent.
2
Political violence & Inter Party Relations
Even more worrying has been a noticeable trend of clashes between political party supporters. This is seen
as even note serious a problem than Koevoer and/ or SWAPOL. Moreso in view of the bitter
experience
Southern Africa has had with the likes of UNITA and RENAMO. It is agreed that in this
instance D.T.A. supporters have been more aggressive than SWAPO's. This
situation could also improve now that under the persuasion and active encouragement
of the U.N Special Representative Mr. Artissahari, political parties have agreed
to adopt a code of conduct witch requires them, inter alia, not to carry arms (whether
concealed or not) or hold political rallies in bus flame area at the same time.
3
Registration of voters: A.G.'s Proclamations.
All Observer Missions
agree that the registration of voters in Northern Namibia, especially in
Ova Boland which is generally known as Swapo stronghold, got off to a
poor start, Lack of sufficient resources allocated to this area in the beginning
resulted in people traveling tong distances to
registration stations only to be told on arrival that election officials
had not yet arrived in the area. This has resulted in an outcry by Swapo sympathizers
who feel that this is a manoeuvre to prevent SWAPO’s supporters from voting.
UNTAG agrees with those wino argue that, there was Inver any in Loll; ton to stop
Swapo's supporters from voting, but that the plan was to allocate resources
equally the country, and later to transfer to
Northern Namibia, where they would still be required;
and that, infect this is what is happening. That at worst this could have been a
question of lack of political sensitivity and
nothing more. What remains a vexing problem,
is the fact that figures registered in the North so far are short by about
50,000 of what t had been the projected to
This is the reason why Swapo seems to have a point in
calling for an extension of the September 5 deadline. It is however, rumored,
that Swapo may not be ready to press too hard
on this point for fear of giving an opportunity for
more South African whites to register.
Administrator Generals
proclamation allowing South African citizens to vote in a Namibian
election is another sue or constant controversy. Swapo has charged that Up
to one Hundred and fifty thousand 150,000) South African whites have been registered to vote. It is agreed that this figure is an exaggeration, but
there is sympathy to Swapo's objection
to allowing non- Namibians to vote in a Namibian election.
4
Outcome of Elections:
As in every election, speculation is rife on what the result will be. A
two-thirds majority by Swapo, which was once a forgone conclusion, seems now
quite doubtful, although we would be wise not to forget the Zimbabwe experience.
There seems to be a concerted effort by all political parties even these on the
left of Swapo to stop Swapo from obtaining a two—thirds majority. Whether
failure by Swapo to get a two-thirds majority would be good for Namibia or not
is an issue of varied opinions and great debate. On the one hand, there are
those woo argue that this would force Swapo to negotiate with other parties and
ensure that the independence constitution is based on broad 00000naus. Which
would be a very good start for a young Namibia. On the other hand, there is fear
that this could lead to political bickering and a long delay in agreeing on the
independence constitution. That this period of uncertainty is the last thing the
new country would need both for investor confidence, and indeed future political
stability. This could in fact result in the temptation to challenge the fairness
of the election. Refusal to accept the outcome of the election on the grounds
that they were not free and fair is the most dreaded development by western
countries as this would bring everyone back to square one, There is, therefore a
quiet campaign to persuade states, especially. African and Non—aligned
countries to pronounce themselves on the freedom and fairness or otherwise of
the election before the result is known.
What Next?
Many observers believe that even if the election goes well and the outcome
is well received and accepted, titers will remain a number of loose ends which
will need to be attended to urgently First will be the National budget. The
Administrator General has indicated that Namibia will start on a deficit. Will
Souls Schools close? Will the civil be paid? These are some of the questions to
which no answers have yet been found. But even more troubling is the question of
security. It is observed that 21,000 former South West Africa Defense Force
members who were being paid by South Africa will stop being raid by November I-
(PLAN) or Swap’s army is estimated at best at about 10,000 men. This is half
of South West Africa Defense Force Members. The fear is that Covet or any of
these discharged groups could obtain arms from anywhere they are said to be many
in Namibia) and easily topple the deference less young government. I have beet,
informed confidentially that UNTAO is seized with these questions.
Conclusions
WindFlock is a small city, but because it belonged to the whites it is well
planned and clean. The city is presently experiencing an artificial boom as
everybody hustles to cash in on UNTAG and the diplomatic community which has
just set roots in the city. Property
prices are ridiculously high, but because of the Financial Rand facility
available to Foreign Governments and diplomats, Lesotho Government may want to
consider favorably possibilities of investing in this Southern African capital.
I had the privilege of calling on Mr. ArLlssaltari who had no trouble
remembering me from ‘is country Finland. I also called officially on Mr.
Legwaila, even though we spent a lot or time Loge Flier as we lived in the same
hotel. Our Botswana colleagues helped with transport, and I was generally well
received by the Southern Africans. I was received very warmly by Hage Gaingob of
Swapo (who I had met before) and Mr. Kazunguizi of D.T.A, the former Minister of
Justice. D.T.A. is conscious of the fact that they are not very popular with
O.A.U. Member, because of being associated with South Africa, but assured me
they were determined to cleat their image
1- RSA Department off Foreign Affairs, Office of AG- — Mr. P. Rousseau
2. Mr. E.F.E. Blume,
3.
Botswana
Ambassador Tebape
4. O.A.U
Jalaoso (Niqrin
5. U.S.A
Mr. Benley
6. UNTAG
Ambassador Leqiwaila
7, U.S.S.R
Mr. Paulov
0. Frontline (chairman)
Ambassador
Mibinge (Zambia)
8, Canada
N. Haffey
10. India
11. Sweden Ms.
Sundh
12. Denmark Mr. S.M Kraqholm
13.11K
14 • UNTAG
Mr. Marti Artihassari
‘5. SWAPO
Mr. Gaingob
16. D.T.A.
Mr. Kozonguigi
17.Chamber of Commerce
Des
Mathews
18. Tanzania
Koroso